RESUMO
Background: WW-based epidemiology is the detection of pathogens from wastewater, typically sewage systems. Its use gained popularity during the COVID-19 pandemic as a rapid and non-invasive way to assess infection prevalence in a population. Public facing dashboards for SARS-CoV-2 were developed in response to the discovery that RNA biomarkers were being shed in faeces before symptoms. However, there is not a standard template or guidance for countries to follow. The aim of this research is to reflect on how currently available dashboards evolved during the pandemic and identify suitable content and rationale from these experiences. Methods and Results: Interviews were carried out with implementers and users of dashboards for SARS-CoV-2 WW data across Europe and North America. The interviews addressed commonalities and inconsistencies in displaying epidemiological data of SARS-CoV-2, clinical parameters of COVID-19, data on variants, and data transparency. The thematic analysis identified WW dashboard elements that can facilitate standardization, or at least interoperability. These elements emphasise communication among developers under the same organization, open access for identified stakeholders, and data summarized with a time-intensive graphic analysis through normalizing at least by population. Simultaneous communication of clinical surveillance is recommended. More research is needed on flow and faecal indicators for normalization of WW data, and on the analysis and representation of variants. Discussion: WW dashboard development between 2020-2023 provided a real-time iterative process of data representation, and several recommendations have been identified. Communication of data through dashboards has the potential to support early warning systems for infectious diseases.
Assuntos
COVID-19 , Doenças TransmissíveisRESUMO
Background: To reduce the coronavirus disease burden in England, along with many other countries, the Government implemented a package of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that have also impacted other transmissible infectious diseases such as norovirus. It is unclear what future norovirus disease incidence is likely to look like upon lifting these restrictions. Methods: Here we use a mathematical model of norovirus fitted to community incidence data in England to project forward expected incidence based on contact surveys that have been collected throughout 2020-2021. Results: We report that susceptibility to norovirus infection has likely increased between March 2020 to mid-2021. Depending upon assumptions of future contact patterns incidence of norovirus that is similar to pre-pandemic levels or an increase beyond what has been previously reported is likely to occur once restrictions are lifted. Should adult contact patterns return to 80% of pre-pandemic levels the incidence of norovirus will be similar to previous years. If contact patterns return to pre-pandemic levels there is a potential for the expected annual incidence to be up to 2-fold larger than in a typical year. The age-specific incidence is similar across all ages. Conclusions: Continued national surveillance for endemic diseases such as norovirus will be essential after NPIs are lifted to allow healthcare services to adequately prepare for a potential increase in cases and hospital pressures beyond what is typically experienced.
Assuntos
COVID-19 , Modelos Animais de Doenças , Infecções por CoronavirusRESUMO
BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted delivery of immunisation services globally. Many countries have postponed vaccination campaigns out of concern about infection risks to staff delivering vaccination, the children being vaccinated and their families. The World Health Organization recommends considering both the benefit of preventive campaigns and the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission when making decisions about campaigns during COVID-19 outbreaks, but there has been little quantification of the risks. MethodsWe modelled excess SARS-CoV-2 infection risk to vaccinators, vaccinees and their caregivers resulting from vaccination campaigns delivered during a COVID-19 epidemic. Our model used population age-structure and contact patterns from three exemplar countries (Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, and Brazil). It combined an existing compartmental transmission model of an underlying COVID-19 epidemic with a Reed-Frost model of SARS-CoV-2 infection risk to vaccinators and vaccinees. We explored how excess risk depends on key parameters governing SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility, and aspects of campaign delivery such as campaign duration, number of vaccinations, and effectiveness of personal protective equipment (PPE) and symptomatic screening. ResultsInfection risks differ considerably depending on the circumstances in which vaccination campaigns are conducted. A campaign conducted at the peak of a SARS-CoV-2 epidemic with high prevalence and without special infection mitigation measures could increase absolute infection risk by 32% to 45% for vaccinators, and 0.3% to 0.5% for vaccinees and caregivers. However, these risks could be reduced to 3.6% to 5.3% and 0.1% to 0.2% respectively by use of PPE that reduces transmission by 90% (as might be achieved with N95 respirators or high-quality surgical masks) and symptomatic screening. ConclusionsSARS-CoV-2 infection risks to vaccinators, vaccinees and caregivers during vaccination campaigns can be greatly reduced by adequate PPE, symptomatic screening, and appropriate campaign timing. Our results support the use of adequate risk mitigation measures for vaccination campaigns held during SARS-CoV-2 epidemics, rather than cancelling them entirely.
Assuntos
COVID-19RESUMO
For African countries currently reporting COVID-19 cases, we estimate when they will report more than 1 000 and 10 000 cases. Assuming current trends, more than 80% are likely to exceed 1 000 cases by the end of April 2020, with most exceeding 10 000 a few weeks later.